Projects by Andrew Davies

Author:Andrew Davies [Davies, Andrew]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780191043406
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Published: 2017-08-10T00:00:00+00:00

Contingent dimensions of projects

Building on contingency arguments, many scholars now recognize that projects differ greatly in their degree of uncertainty, complexity, and urgency and suggest that distinctive forms of organization, process, and managerial approach are required to manage each of these dimensions. Arthur Stinchcombe’s and Carol Heimer’s in-depth study of North Sea oil and gas projects was one of the first attempts at applying contingency theory to large-scale projects. They recognized that the highly uncertain and unexpected situations frequently encountered in one-off projects have to be resolved by innovative and adaptive processes, but emphasized that projects incorporate many features we associate with permanent, mechanistic, and stable structures. Contracts between multiple parties in projects incorporate some of the functions managerial hierarchies are set up to achieve, such as incentives and controls to address uncertain and changing conditions.

Uncertainty refers to the state of information about the project’s goal, task, and environment, which is often poorly understood and inadequate particularly at the start, as we saw in the Manhattan Project. Uncertainties can be foreseeable and unforeseeable, each of which requires a different project management approach.

A ‘foreseen uncertainty’ is an event or risk—or ‘known unknown’—that can be identified while planning for a project. Risk management is the technique used to identify, evaluate, and control uncertainties that might be avoided or mitigated. Risk registers (i.e. a record of identified risks) are completed before executing a project to identify the technical events (e.g. test or interface problems), partner selection, customer requirements (changes in scope), and other risks. Handling risks means simply accepting them as an unavoidable nuisance or taking preventive action to avoid them, including contingency plans (with reserve funding and time buffers) with instructions for dealing with them if and when they occur.

An ‘unforeseen uncertainty’ refers to an event, impact, or unanticipated interaction that cannot be identified at the start. Sometimes called ‘unknown unknowns’, this type of uncertainty occurs frequently in any project that develops new technology, opens up a new or partially understood market, or has to tackle an unanticipated crisis or disaster. Traditional risk management tools are unable to cope with breakthrough projects or projects undertaken in fast-paced competitive environments where unforeseen uncertainty is unavoidable or seen as a risk worth taking, such as Arup’s futuristic eco-city design for Dongtan.

Projects have to cope with a variety of economic, institutional, and ecological uncertainties classified by their source and impact. Technological and market uncertainties are singled out by Aaron Shenhar and Dov Dvir as the most widespread, persistent, and challenging unpredictable and unknown factors affecting the goal and tasks undertaken in projects. There are four types of technological uncertainty—low-tech, medium-tech, hi-tech, and super-high-tech projects. Each is associated with how much new technology is incorporated into the final product and the process used to produce it (see Chapter 5 on the use of digital technology to develop the Boeing 777 aeroplane). Projects incorporating significant amounts of new technology (e.g. defence, computer, and aerospace projects) require greater interaction among team members, numerous design cycles, iterative learning, and prototyping.

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